Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu Emerge as India’s Top Green Job Destinations: IPE Study

A new study by IPE Global has warned that the ongoing West Asia crisis could put between 10 million and 12 million Indian livelihoods at risk, while simultaneously creating an opportunity for India to accelerate its green transition and generate up to 35 million green jobs by 2047.

The peer-reviewed study, titled Paving a Green Transition: A New Social Contract Amid West Asia Crisis, argues that India can use its existing renewable energy, green hydrogen, agricultural and industrial decarbonisation programmes to build economic resilience while reducing its dependence on imported fossil fuels. The report estimates that convergence across existing schemes could unlock a funding cushion of USD 42-53 billion and support the creation of a USD 15 trillion green economy by 2070.

Green Jobs Concentrated in Renewable and Industrial Hubs

While states such as Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar face the highest risk of livelihood losses due to their dependence on migration-linked incomes from West Asia, the study finds that the largest green job opportunities are likely to emerge in states with strong renewable energy resources and industrial ecosystems.

According to the study, Rajasthan could generate around 5 million green jobs by 2047, making it the largest beneficiary among all states. Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh follow with an estimated 4.5 million green jobs each, while Maharashtra is projected to create 4 million and Tamil Nadu around 3.5 million green jobs.

The report notes that renewable energy resource availability in Rajasthan and Gujarat, combined with industrial corridors and manufacturing capacity in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, position these states to absorb a significant share of future green employment opportunities.

Geographic Mismatch Emerges as Key Challenge

One of the report’s central findings is the emergence of a geographic mismatch between regions most vulnerable to job losses and those expected to gain the most from the green transition.

Kerala, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are identified as the states most exposed to employment disruptions linked to the West Asia crisis, owing to their high concentration of migrant workers and remittance-dependent households. However, green jobs are expected to cluster primarily around renewable energy hubs and industrial centres.

The study suggests that policymakers will need to focus on targeted skilling programmes, migration planning and region-specific investments to ensure workers in vulnerable states can participate in the green economy. Measures such as expanding PM-KUSUM and natural farming initiatives in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar could help absorb local employment shocks rather than relying solely on jobs generated elsewhere.

Renewable Energy, Green Hydrogen to Drive Employment

The energy sector is expected to play a major role in green job creation. The report estimates that India’s 500 GW renewable energy target could support around 3.4 million jobs, while the National Green Hydrogen Mission could add another 1.5 million to 2 million jobs. Together, the energy sector could create between 5 million and 8 million green jobs over the coming decades.

In agriculture, the study proposes reframing PM-KUSUM into a “Farmer-as-Energy-Producer” model. Such an approach could support 50 GW of agri-solar capacity, create around 1.5 million direct green jobs and potentially generate 6-7 million jobs across the wider agricultural value chain while reducing emissions by 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually.

Existing Schemes Can Fund the Transition

The report argues that India does not require a completely new policy architecture to achieve these outcomes. Instead, better coordination between existing programmes such as PM-KUSUM, the National Green Hydrogen Mission, Production Linked Incentive schemes, the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, RDSS, PM PRANAM and Agri Stack could unlock substantial economic and employment gains.

According to the study, existing schemes already contain the resources necessary to create a funding cushion worth USD 42-53 billion. If effectively aligned, these programmes could strengthen energy security, reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks and support India’s transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Commenting on the findings, Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, said that India currently imports around 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, making the economy vulnerable to disruptions in West Asia. He noted that while the risks are significant, the opportunity to create 35 million green jobs by 2047 and build a USD 15 trillion green economy by 2070 is equally substantial.