Food crops to fuel world’s biofuels till 2035: OECD-FAO Report

Food-based feedstocks such as sugar, maize, rice and vegetable oils will continue to dominate global biofuel production through 2035, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035. The report highlights that first-generation biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel derived from conventional crops, will remain the primary contributors to the global biofuel mix despite rising concerns over sustainability.

The analysis, jointly released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), notes that although feedstock patterns vary across regions, food-related inputs will continue to underpin the industry.

On the other hand, second-generation biofuels produced from cellulosic materials such as crop residues, woody biomass and dedicated energy crops are unlikely to significantly expand their share in the coming decade.

The study comes amid ongoing concerns about the competing demands of food, feed and fuel on global agricultural land. With maize, sugarcane and vegetable oils continuing to lead the biofuel production—and a decline in waste-oil-based diesel—there is expected to be limited relief from pressure on farmland and crop prices.

By 2035, food consumption is projected to account for 40 per cent of global cereal use, while feed will make up 34 per cent. Biofuels and other industrial uses will represent roughly a quarter, indicating little diversification toward non-food feedstocks.

In India, the Economic Survey 2025–26 has already flagged similar concerns. It observed that the country’s ethanol blending programme is influencing cropping patterns, with farmers increasingly shifting toward maize cultivation. This trend may heighten dependence on edible oil imports and increase volatility in domestic food prices.

Globally, biofuel production and consumption are expected to grow at a modest annual rate of 1.4 per cent through 2035—significantly slower than the previous decade. This slowdown is largely attributed to declining fuel demand in high-income countries.

However, emerging economies, led by India, Brazil and Indonesia, are projected to drive nearly 80 per cent of the growth in global biofuel demand. Meanwhile, the share of high-income countries is expected to decline from 51 per cent in 2025 to 43 per cent by 2035, reflecting a shift in the global energy landscape.