India’s Power Sector CO2 Emissions Fall for Only Second Time in 50 Years: CREA

India’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from its power sector fell by 1 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 0.2 percent over the past 12 months, according to a new analysis published today by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on Carbon Brief.

This marks only the second decline in almost half a century, signalling a significant turning point in India’s emissions trajectory.

Record Growth in Clean Energy Capacity

A key factor behind the emissions drop is India’s rapid expansion of clean energy. The country added a record 25.1 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity in the first half of 2025, a 69 percent increase compared to the previous year’s record growth.

India’s CO2 emissions growth: change in half-yearly

This new clean energy capacity is expected to produce nearly 50 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity annually, almost enough to meet the entire increase in power demand over the period.

Economic Slowdown and Sectoral Emission Trends

Slowing economic growth contributed to zero growth in oil product demand – sharply down from annual increases of 6 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024.

However, increased government infrastructure spending led to a rise in carbon emissions from steel and cement production by 7 percent and 10 percent, respectively, which partially offset gains achieved through the power sector’s cleaner energy transition.

Outlook for Emissions Peak and Monitoring Initiative

The analysis suggests that emissions from India’s power sector could peak before 2030, a milestone that would point towards the decoupling of economic growth from emissions in this crucial sector. This is significant as the power sector has historically been the main driver of India’s emissions growth.

This study is the first in a new regular series by CREA tracking India’s CO2 emissions using monthly data on fuel use, industrial output, and power generation from several official sources. The initiative aims to provide near real-time insights into the country’s emissions progress.