The High Stakes of Asia’s CCS Trend: Emissions, Costs, and Climate Risks

Ahead of the Japan CCS Summit on October 15-16, a new comprehensive report from Climate Analytics highlights the significant climate and economic risks posed by large-scale adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Asia.

Covering China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia – countries responsible for over half of global fossil fuel and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – the report warns that CCS, as currently promoted by fossil fuel interests and some governments, could add nearly 25 billion tonnes of extra emissions by 2050.

This would fundamentally jeopardise the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and lock these economies into costly, uncompetitive fossil fuel pathways.

Asia’s Critical Climate Role and CCS Risks

Asian economies dominate global fossil fuel emissions and energy use, with coal alone supplying 49 percent of the region’s total energy. The report emphasises that while advanced economies like Japan and South Korea have seen peaks in emissions, developing Asian countries, including India and Southeast Asian nations, still show no imminent signs of emissions peaking, underscoring the urgency for rapid and deep emission reductions.

Carbon Capture and Storage technology is often promoted as a key solution to mitigate emissions from fossil fuel use in Asia’s hard-to-abate sectors, such as power generation and heavy industries.

However, the report highlights that Carbon Capture and Storage projects have consistently underperformed on technical and economic grounds, capturing only around 50 percent or less of emissions and suffering from high operational costs, technical complexity, and unproven long-term storage safety.

Many CCS applications today primarily support enhanced oil recovery, which paradoxically increases fossil fuel production and net emissions rather than reducing them.

Economic and Technical Barriers to CCS

CCS deployment in power generation is highly uncompetitive, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from fossil plants equipped with CCS estimated to be one-and-a-half to two times higher than renewable energy systems backed by storage. This cost disadvantage is compounded by technical inefficiencies, including retrofitting challenges and lifecycle emissions from Carbon Capture and Storage operations themselves.

Furthermore, the likelihood of scaling CCS rapidly to the levels envisioned in certain climate scenarios is low. While optimistic projections see 5.8 gigatonnes of CO2 captured annually by 2050 in Asia, current project pipelines and capture rates suggest these ambitions will not be met.

Instead, resources poured into CCS risk diverting critical investment from more economically viable and rapidly deployable zero-emissions alternatives such as renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency.

Regional CCS Landscape: Supporting Fossil Fuel Interests

The CCS project pipeline in Asia heavily favours fossil fuel-linked infrastructure. Approximately a third of regional CCS capacity targets natural gas and LNG processing, while power and heat sectors account for a significant share despite viable clean alternatives.

Conversely, truly hard-to-abate sectors like cement and steel see minimal CCS deployment, ironically, areas where CCS could potentially be more justified.

Japan, South Korea, and Australia are the main proponents of CCS in Asia, using financial and regulatory support not only to sustain domestic fossil fuel industries but also to promote CCS technologies internationally, especially to Southeast Asia.

Australia and some Southeast Asian countries are positioning themselves as CO2 storage hubs to prolong fossil fuel production. Meanwhile, China and India, while less committed to Carbon Capture and Storage currently, could shift heavily toward it, which poses major risks for climate goals given their vast fossil fuel use.

Emissions and Economic Consequences of CCS Dependence

If Asia follows a high-CCS trajectory with underperforming capture rates – as observed in current projects – it could emit an additional 25 billion tonnes of GHGs by 2050, mostly CO2 with some methane. This amount exceeds the cumulative historical emissions from all but three Asian countries and would fatally undermine the Paris Agreement.

Alternatively, if Carbon Capture and Storage fails to achieve high deployment but continues to receive support, significant fossil fuel lock-in could occur, causing stranded asset risks and prolonged fossil fuel dependence. Either scenario poses considerable threats to both climate targets and regional economic competitiveness.

Viable Alternatives and a Low-CCS Climate Pathway

The report strongly advocates for a deliberate low-CCS pathway in Asia focused on rapid fossil fuel phaseout and prioritisation of renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency. Asian countries have already witnessed dramatic cost reductions in wind and solar power, with renewable LCOEs significantly below fossil fuel costs in most cases.

Emerging zero-emissions technologies also show promise for decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors without Carbon Capture and Storage reliance. For example, green hydrogen, electric steelmaking, and low-carbon cement production can substantially reduce emissions without the risks and costs associated with CCS.

Conclusion

Asia stands at a defining moment. Its choices on CCS deployment will significantly influence the global climate trajectory. The current promotion of expansive CCS plans funded and driven largely by fossil fuel interests threatens to derail the region’s and the world’s ability to meet climate goals, while creating costly economic liabilities.

Instead, the region’s most promising and economically sound path is to minimise Carbon Capture and Storage use, focusing on scaling affordable renewable energy, electrification, and industrial decarbonization solutions. This approach will better protect the Paris Agreement’s aspirations and offer a more sustainable, competitive energy future for Asia.

This detailed analysis sets a critical context ahead of the Japan Carbon Capture and Storage Summit and calls for policymakers to reconsider the heavy emphasis on CCS and pivot towards comprehensive, economically viable clean energy transitions.