Coal Interests Risk Derailing Clean Energy Shift in Asia’s Big Three Countries: CREA

If China maintains its current pace of clean energy growth and India and Indonesia achieve their stated clean energy targets, power-sector emissions across these three major coal-growth markets could begin to decline by 2030. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in a new report revealing these insights, identifies continued expansion of coal power as a common threat across the three markets.

Both a rapid phase-down post-peak and a prolonged plateau or even a rebound in coal use are distinct possibilities in all three countries. Falling back to slower renewable energy growth rates after a 2030 peak could lead to missed opportunities for further reducing power-sector emissions.

The research also shows that peaking coal power generation in China, India and Indonesia would be a breakthrough in global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. The three markets accounted for 73% of global coal consumption in 2024.

Ramped Coal Consumption

Based on these research analysis, these countries have seen the largest growth in coal consumption over the past decade and are therefore driving global consumption. Therefore, a decline in coal consumption in these markets would have global implications, not just in emissions reductions but also for countries that depend on coal export revenue.

‘China has already added enough new clean electricity generation to cover all new demand growth, and power sector coal use and emissions have been falling since 2024 as a result. While the coal power decline is unlikely to be linear and may experience occasional setbacks, maintaining China’s current pace of clean energy energy growth means a coal power peak is imminent,’ said Lauri Myllyvirta, Co-founder and Lead Analyst at CREA.

‘Meeting India’s 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity set by Prime Minister Modi could in fact peak coal power before 2030. The country has already crossed the 50% mark well ahead of its 2030 deadline, even as electricity demand continues to rise in line with rapid economic and population growth. Strengthening grid flexibility, storage, and transmission will be key to sustaining this momentum and ensuring reliable, affordable electricity.’ said Manoj Kumar, Analyst at CREA.

‘President Subianto’s 100 GW solar program could ensure that Indonesia’s coal power generation peaks by 2030. However, the current national plans still include near-term increases in fossil fuels.

The real opportunity lies in translating this vision into a concrete delivery roadmap that positions clean energy to dominate new capacity additions,’ said Katherine Hasan, Analyst at CREA.

‘Unchecked coal power expansion risks creating powerful vested interests that could potentially delay the energy transition in China, India, and Indonesia. Rapid reduction in power sector emissions post coal peak would not only require maintaining pre-2030 renewable energy growth rate in all three countries but also ensuring power market and grid reforms. The total reduction in power sector CO2 emissions could be equivalent to India’s total 2019 CO2 emissions, compared to business-as-usual,’ Myllyvirta added.